SAFSafran SA (Euronext Paris: SAF)Report of 25 Oct 2026Price then €271.8

Safran shares fell 25% since August.Safran 2026 profit guided up 24%.

Author position: the author holds no position in this company. Keep this in mind as you read.

The verdict

18/ 20High conviction

The business got stronger. The share price fell 25%. Safran is a great business at a fair-to-good price, with a thin margin of safety.

1. Durable moat (Green)
4 of 5: jet engines need years of safety approvals and few firms can build them

2. Return on capital (Green)
27 cents per €1 (ROIC 27%, IFRS), far above 15%

3. Growth runway (Green)
Sales up 13.7% a year since 2020 (the Covid low); 2025 grew 14.7%

4. Cash conversion (Green)
124 cents of cash for every €1 of profit in 2025

5. Balance sheet (Green)
No net debt: €1.67B more cash than debt (30 Jun 2026)

6. AI resilience (Green)
4 of 5 (3.85): AI helps upkeep and design, it cannot replace a certified engine

7. Insider alignment (Amber)
€1.34M sold, €0.23M bought in 12 months (one director bought €166k)

8. Margin of safety (Amber)
About 18% below our €333 estimate

9. Yield vs safe bonds (Green)
4.3% cash yield vs 3.38% from euro-area government bonds

10. Crowd sentiment (Green)
Panic stage, but early: 25% below the August peak and not yet confirmed

InvestingGym scorecard. Data: Safran press releases (FY2020-FY2025, H1 and Q3 2026), AMF manager transactions via AbcBourse, Yahoo Finance (price, 23 Oct 2026), ECB Data Portal (10-year euro-area AAA government yield 3.38%, 22 Oct 2026).

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